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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However the current race is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. During an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still